Wednesday 20 December 2023. – For laziness reasons, I copied today my blog post from January this year. However, I had to make some edits to my 11-month-old prediction. Deletions in strikethrough, additions in bold:

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Here’s a simplified plywood market outlook in January 2023:

Birch plywood availability will remain scarce until mid-2023. A minor part of Russian production will find new markets in Asia. Small Some amounts of Russian material will end up illegally in the Western market.

Some hardwood plywood will get a boost from missing birch volumes. Particularly the species whose technical properties are close to birch. Other hardwood plywood will face declining demand. New mixed species constructions emerge; some stay, some go.

Softwood plywood and OSB will suffer from declining building activity. Production curtailments are probable certain.

Despite the pessimistic market tone, the average prices for many panels are still above the level of the late 2010s. Production costs are higher, but the profit-making capability is still there.

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Some right, some wrong, mainly very general, that is how predictions are made.

I wish you All a Merry Christmas with joy and laughter!